Saturday 30 July 2011

Eat That Peanut

Couple of days after I'd written about Singapore Airlines (SIA) losing market share, the company shocked the business world today by reporting that Q1 profit dived 82% from a year ago.
I don't like to say this but hey... I told you so!

As usual, they said fuel prices were to blame. Which airline isn't affected by it?
And seeing that they, together with subsidiary Tiger Airways, have been appointing "foreign talents" to head up operations, we would expect them to do better.
Instead, competitors like Emirates and Cathay Pacific have been steadily chipping away at SIA's market share.

Former Straits Times journalist Rodney King's book "The Singapore Miracle - Myth and Reality" threw doubts on the PAP's claims of "cutting-edge efficiency, global competitiveness, economic freedom and transparency."
A must read for anyone concerned about our future sustainability as an economic success. While it may not be as ubiquitous as a certain other politician's books, you should be able to find it at Kinokuniya at Ngee Ann City and Select Books at Tanglin Shopping Centre. And there's always Amazon.com.


When ex-SDP candidate and current Presidential hopeful Tan Jee Say introduced his S$60 billion National Regeneration Plan (NRP) during the lead up to the May Elections, many PAP Ministers including his former employer Goh Chok Tong rushed to shoot it down.
The reason is simple.
This plan benefits Singaporeans, not PAP.
Part of it involves training another 30,000 teachers and building 300 more schools. The aim is to bring down class room size which has remained the same (40) since I was in primary education in the early 80s!
It will also save Singaporean parents the unnecessary grief of the daunting balloting for primary school places.

Another part of it advocates a regeneration of our manufacturing industries and move towards higher productive and higher valued service-related industries. Currently, the MNCs and Government Linked Companies are enjoying huge amounts of tax breaks, rental subsidies etc but are creating lower quality jobs for Singaporeans. Many MNCs are also guilty of exploiting the lax foreign labour laws and hiring foreigners to occupy the better positions.

Why is the PAP so apprehensive of the NRP? Afterall, it is endorsed by a former British Head of Civil Service. (The British incidentally were responsible for many of our institutions, including our Civil Service)

- MNCs might start to pack up and leave. This reduces demand for foreign workers and affects population growth. GDP is hit and Ministers lose some of their bonuses.
- GLCs may be dismantled much like what happened to the Chaebol. With so many of the party's fraternity related to these GLCs, it's anathema.
- They will have to start spending more on healthcare, education and social services. Which leaves little for Temasek and GIC to play with.

In 2008, a political storm swept across Malaysia resulting in Barisan Nasional's worst electoral showing ever.
And to this day, the storm hasn't let up.
This minor democratic success served as a wake up call to the country's ruling elite culminating in the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP).

Call it funny, creative, cheesy or anything else, its exactly what Singapore needs. Malaysians may already have surpassed our quality of life. The ETP should help them race ahead one day.














Monday 25 July 2011

MAS loses money, SIA losing share

It's that time of the year again. Nope I don't mean Christmas.
National Day is approaching and our PAP ministers have taken out the huge banners of themselves and pasted them all over the country.
This is probably one of the two occasions where our million dollar MPs are generally seen. The other is General Elections.
I say this because the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), currently helmed by Tharman Shanmugaratnam, PAP MP for Jurong GRC, made a record S$10 billion loss in FY ended March 2011 and blamed it on external factors.

Quoting Ravi Menon, Managing Director of MAS, "The translation loss is not a factor. It is just a reporting phenomenon where you report in Singdollar, the strength of the Singdollar diminishes the value of the reserves. Like I said, if we had reported our results in foreign currency or US dollar, this is not an issue."

Firstly, any commercial or government entity anywhere in the world reports in local currency.
Secondly, any of such organisations invested in foreign assets is susceptible to foreign currency movements.
Thirdly, most Asian currencies have steadily appreciated against the US dollar since the 2008 global financial crisis. And the current wrangling in Congress over the debt ceiling is reinforcing the weak sentiment for the dollar.

To pin the blame of the huge loss on currency strength is nothing short of lame. Hedging Mr. Menon?
Also, currency translation DOES affect the bottomline. It is not just a reporting phenomenon because it translates into real profits or losses.

In any case, Hong Kong Monetary Authority netted HKD 79.4 billion in profits in the same FY.

This incident brings to mind MAS' inept handling of the minibond crisis. MAS basically told investors to seek their own redress despite the fact that they are tasked to regulate all elements of monetary, banking and financial aspects of Singapore.
Hong Kong's Chief Executive Donald Tsang in contrast, vowed to bring the people responsible for saga to justice.
His government's resolve, coupled with the strong consumer movement, forced DBS to return Hong Kong investors most of their money. Singaporean investors on the other hand, were told to f**k off, despite the fact that DBS is a Singapore bank!

Well actually Singapore bank in name. DBS has been run by a string of come and go foreigners like John Olds, Phillipe Paillart and Jackon Tai. Even Piyush Gupta, the latest head honcho, is an Indian.
Retired politician Lee Kuan Yew reiterated his penchant for foreigners by saying they are "vital" to Singapore.
I'll accept if he said they were important. But "vital"? What is he on?

I suppose local universities like NUS and NTU have been screwing up so badly that no Singaporean is qualified to head the country's own financial institution.

Malaysian CEO and founder of Air Asia, one of the world's fastest growing airlines questioned Singapore Airline's faith in locals when they keep hiring "foreign talents" to lead the business. Air Asia's commercial head is Singaporean!
Incidentally, Air Asia made record profits of US$500 million in 2010, fast catching up with SIA's US$800 million. That's why they are rushing to set up a low cost-long haul carrier to compete with the former.

The points I'm trying to make in this entry are:

1) Singaporeans are a clever bunch. Ministers and GLCs can no longer hogwash their way into explaining poor performance.

2) Because 1) is true, Singaporeans can and should lead their own national companies. Furthermore, there is no empirical evidence to suggest that foreigners have raised the standard of business in the country.

In any case, let's take off with Asia's first and leading low cost long haul airline.


Monday 18 July 2011

Musings on integration, Temasek and Goal 2010

PM Lee urged Singaporeans to be inclusive.
For awhile, I was excited that this could signal a paradigm shift in PAP policy towards native Singaporeans. That was until and read on.

He was referring to foreigners and new citizens and went so far as to ask the local Indian grassroots to integrate Indians from other parts of India (North).

I've come across many North Indians working here saying rather unpleasant things about our native Indians who hail mainly from the South. Can't elaborate further for fear of being hauled up for questioning. I'm not PRC so the law won't be so lenient towards me.

So do new Indians want to integrate with our local Indians or just prefer to hang out with their own?
I'd wager that most North Indians are forming their own foreign cliques and circle of friends.
Why then should local Indian grassroots spend tax-payers' money planning programmes to integrate these foreigners?

In any case, the onus is on foreigners, Indians or not, to humbly integrate themselves into the Singaporean society. After all, they came here on their own volition.

Further, it begs me to question (continuously) if there's a real need for so many foreigners in Singapore.
How talented are these foreigners that step into our shores? Are we actually getting people of the highest calibre?
An interesting article from Temasek Review pulled out global rankings for universities around the world.
The top Indian university is a shocking 113 places below NTU and even further behind NUS. I'd also documented previously that India (and many developing nations) are notorious for fake degrees. More proof here.

If you search LinkedIn for office holders at Temasek Holdings, you'd realise that many of them are from India. That's our national sovereign fund for crying out loud!

It's little wonder that its latest FY performance is nothing to crow about.
Unlike Kuwait Investment Authority, who sold their stake in Citigroup in 2009, landing a $1 billion profit, Temasek befuddled the investment community by selling off its entire stake in Bank of America, making a whopping $2 billion loss in the process.
Remember that both investments were made around the same time during the global financial crisis in 2008.
The fund also managed to get embroiled in regulatory issues with both the Indonesian and Thai governments over their botched investment attempts.
It's mind-boggling how Temasek can't get a proper due diligence team in place when they spent $31 billion on expenses in FY08.

Then again, we can't put the blame on its foreign staff. Maybe they just weren't integrated.
Singaporeans should be held accountable for this.

On a related note, they aren't going to allow Tan Jee Say to run for President. This fella will spend all his time trying to pry open GIC and Temasek's books.
That will leave little time for more pressing issues like soliciting feedback for Major General (NS) Chan Chun Sing's sports masterplan.
Can't we at least be more original with the name- Vision 2030.

This just has Mah Bow Tan's Goal 2010 written all over it....

Tuesday 12 July 2011

SMRT and SBS to increase fares.....again

For the whole of 2009, the Hong Kong MTR made US$77 million from advertising revenues. Because this was a significant drop from the previous year, probably due to the '08 financial crisis, the management promised to go all out to bring in additional ad dollars.
Check out some of their digital campaigns here:



If you've been to Kuala Lumpur recently, you will see lively advertising in their metro stations.




Contrast this with SMRT. The billboards lining Tanjong Pagar and Raffles Place stations are mostly empty. These are probably the stations with highest human traffic as they are located in the heart of our business district.
And the economy surely can't be in recession when State Media reported today that Mastercard claimed there was a 49% rise in spending on their cards in the first month of the Great Singapore Sale compared to last year.

Train operators rely on advertising revenue to boost earnings in bad times and to combat rising costs of operation among other things.
That naturally means they need a well trained and motivated sales force to solicit advertising business.
And Singapore is the home to many consumer goods HQ so there can't be a lack of corporate targets.

So why doesn't SMRT (and SBS) appear worried at the lack of ad dollars?

Because they can increase their fares any time they want.
It was reported today that both SMRT and SBS are seeking the maximum fare increase. What gall!
Unlike many cash strapped operators in other countries, SMRT's FY11 revenues grew y-o-y to reach nearly 1 billion dollars.
You can see from the table below that with the exception of FY 2009 and 2010, growth in car kilometres operated did not keep pace with the growth in ridership.
That means SMRT did not adequately increase service levels despite the surge in Singapore's resident population over the last five years.
This would explain why trains are overcrowded, air-conditioning faulty and the numerous breakdowns.

Yet they have the cheek to consistently seek fare increases because they just be bothered to look for alternative sources of revenue like ad dollars or increase productivity?


I wonder what the Public Transport Council (PTC) has to say about the latest request for adjustments.
Since PTC is a statutory board under the Ministry of Transport, Lui Tuck Yew and PAP must also be held responsible if the PTC approves the latest round of profiteering by our public transport operators.

But there is nothing out of the ordinary here. Prices and fares of most public services go up after Elections. Thanks to the 60% daft Singaporeans, we should brace ourselves from yet another vicious cycle of price hikes.

In any case, SMRT has lots to learn from a truly world class system--- The Seoul Metro.

Thursday 7 July 2011

Fun Pack Song--- Sigh

Many people reacted with dismay when JJ Lin's infamous YOG song was broadcast from tree to tree.

Many people reacted with horror when Colonel Ong Tze Ch'in and his band of organisers for this year's PAP Parade aka National Day Parade (NDP) created a totally absurd version of Lady Gaga's Bad Romance song.

Just with previous attempts at hip-hop dancing and rapping, the PAP establishment bungles at every chance to be "cool".

When I was a kid, we used to sing community songs proudly. "Stand Up for Singapore", "Count on me Singapore", "We are Singapore" etc etc.
Now with the Singaporean identity lost in a sea of foreigners, the feeling is quite different.

But at least, the "Fun Pack song", as this debacle has come to be known, has helped draw some attention to the NDP, albeit unwanted.
More and more Singaporeans use the National Day holiday to visit Malaysia instead of watching the parade.
You can't really blame us for our indifference to our independence day when Lee Kuan Yew himself labelled some contents of our National Pledge as "high falutin" ideas.

Still, the light at the end of the tunnel is that the organisers may have to pull the song out of the parade due to copyright infringements. And it so happens that Lady Gaga is in town today.

Will the musical freak herself freak out at these lyrics?

Let’s start with the bag
That’s right grab your bag
It’s the fun pack pack
Attack the fun pack

Take out the flag, (inaudible)
You can wave it, if you feel like it
Let’s wave the flag
Wave, wave, wave
Let’s wave the flag

(Very nice Singapore, well done)

Take out your light stick, it’s two of a kind
It’s interactive, means you can join
Just pretend
Oh, oh, oh
(Inaudible)

I want Newater and water for a drink
You and me let’s share a bit
I want a biscuit and I want a sweet
You and me let’s share this treat

Kopi O o o o o o o
Time for the fun pack song
Kopi O o o o o o o
We like the fun pack song

Let’s start with the bag
That’s right grab your bad
It’s the fun pack pack
Let’s get the fun pack

I want Newater and water for a drink
You and me let’s share a bit
I want a biscuit and I want a sweet
You and me let’s share this treat

Kopi O o o o o o o
Time for the fun pack song
Kopi O o o o o o o
We like the fun pack song

Let’s start with the bag
That’s right grab your bad
It’s the fun pack pack
Attack the fun pack


One thing's for sure, the incident is frankly embarrassing Singapore.
It probably embarrassed Hitler too.


Wednesday 6 July 2011

To conscript or not to conscript?

Taiwan's former President Chen Shui Bian's Democratic and Progressive Party (DPP) pro-independence stance was always going to increase Cross Straits tension. Whether rightly or wrongly, he often irked Beijing with his combative style. So when Ma Ying-Jeou of the Opposition took power in 2008, all eyes were on his China policies.
Within months of taking office, Time Magazine documented that Cross Straits Relations had improved dramatically.
Among other things, Ma launched direct weekend charter flights between PRC and Taiwan for the first time, opened Taiwan to mainland Chinese tourists, eased restrictions on Taiwan investment in mainland China and approved measures that will allow mainland Chinese investors to buy Taiwan stocks.

Despite all this, it was reported in 2009 that China continued to aim more than 2,000 missiles at Taiwan. I may not be an armament specialist but that seems enough to level most of Taipei.
Nonetheless, diplomacy has probably reduced the chance that those warheads would ever be fired.



You would think that such real military threat calls for an extension of Conscription.
But that couldn't be further away from the reallity.

Taiwan wants to completely do away with conscript and have a full volunteer force by 2014. The draftee service period will also be shortened to 12 months.
This trend is prevalent in many countries today. Close to 100 countries have no enforced conscription.
Many are also reducing service period.
Other than South Korea and Israel who obviously live in fear of their neighbours, Singapore is the only developed state that has compulsory service over 18 months, joining the likes of Cuba, Angola and Syria.

I guess most nations see that the pen is mightier than the sword. In today's globalised world where inter- regional trade sustains most economies, the risk of armed conflict is simply too high.
Many armies are also reinventing themselves by leveraging on technology advancements. The Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is an example of replacing soldiers with machines. In the last Iraq War, the US Army also started using Unmanned Ground Vehicles to conduct dangerous missions.

The Singapore Armed Forces claims that it is transforming our military into a 3G Army. Yet one could argue that the manpower requirements seem to be the same as before.
Many people are questioning what they are defending, this compounded by the fact that over 40% of the population today are foreigners with no long term loyalty to Singapore.
Defence Minister Dr. Ng Eng Hen reiterated that he sees no reason why new citizens should serve National Service. (NS)
New walkover MP and former Chief of Army MG (NS) Chan Chun Sing shocked Singaporeans when he affirmed this view to defend another PAP MP who became citizen just three years ago without serving a single day of NS.
For those who don't know, the 2 years (plus 10 reservist years) of military service is a rite of passage for every Singaporean male.

I agree that we should never take security for granted. Which is why PAP officials should stop criticising other governments behind their backs.
It may be an opportune time to review the entire military service institution. If governments in warring or high tension regions can do it, why can't we?

To be honest, there is much more internal security issues to worry about considering that dead bodies have been turning up everywhere. And we had artwork done on our MRT trains, remember?



Monday 4 July 2011

Opposition sweeps Thai Elections

Opposition Puea Thai won a clear majority in Thailand's landmark elections on Sunday.
Thai voters have overwhelmingly ditched the elitist Democrat Party in favour of populace policies of the poor that Thaksin's party stands for.

While nothing is black and white in politics, the fact that Thai people had the guts to vote for change after waves of red shirts, yellow shirts protests, speaks highly of the electorate.

In Singapore, a developed state, more and more people have fallen through the cracks. The poor has gotten poorer. Purchasing power is diminishing.
The middle class is increasingly sandwiched between chunks of foreigners who've taken away good jobs and depressed wages in the long run. Housing has become a life long burden, retirement a dream and marriage rates have dipped to an all-time low.

Yet 60% of Singaporeans didn't have the testicular fortitude to vote for change.

Singaporeans have lots to learn from our Northern neighbours. Or remain daft for life.

Friday 1 July 2011

Higher...higher....high off the ground

The Energy Market Authority of Singapore has approved yet another hike in electricity tariffs in the city state. Tariffs have been on an upward trend for 33 months!!

I compared the latest household tariffs across select countries and Singaporeans pay alot more than other countries to keep our food chilled or play Xbox.


In fact, only UK and Japan from the chart above registered higher tariffs. Hong Kongers and Australians pay significantly less than us.

With the exception of Russia and Malaysia, all the countries on the chart are net oil importers. That means the lame reason cited by SP Services that increased power generation costs due to higher oil prices are to blame is invalid.
Higher oil prices effect nearly every economy in the world and yet many of these economies have found ways to either produce energy more efficiently or increase subsidies.

In 2004, Singapore Power forked out S$6.3 billion to buy Australian assets of TXU Corp.
It gets better.
Of that amount, $2.2 billion came from SingPower's own cash hoard. The only way a power producer cum seller can make that obscene amount from a tiny market is profiteering.
It doesn't stop there.
In 2007, the company was at it again teaming up with Babcock to buy more Australia assets spending $6 billion in the process. In addition, the consortium agreed to assume $6.5 billion in Alinta's debt.
Babcock eventually collapsed in 2009 so it is not known how much bad debt is on the books of Singapore Power.
Are Singaporeans being overcharged to shore up accounts?

Then in 2008, they sold a power generator PowerSeraya to Malaysian company YTL Power.

It seems that Singapore Power has put shareholder interest way above consumers whom they have been sucking blood from all these years.

Also, do you know that Singapore Power exports electricity to Malaysia? It has excess power generation capacity of over 3000 megawatts.

So with overhanging supply, basic economics ceteris paribus, prices should be low.
Yet Singaporeans continue to get ripped off month after month because Singapore Power is a complete monopoly.

In any case, it is unlikely for oil futures to go much higher for the following reasons:

1) Unlike the 2008 oil crisis, there is a supply glut. Half the OPEC countries want to increase production and half don't. Supply is there for sure.

2) Slowdown in US and Eurozone to dampen oil consumption in medium term.

3) While the Japan disaster has affected nuclear programmes globally, it is still currently the only long term viable solution to energy-hungry developing states. So as countries diversify from oil into renewables, demand for oil may decrease in future.

So why isn't the PAP stepping up to protect the interest of Singaporeans?

I'm dedicating this song to the 60% who voted for higher electricity bills.