Thursday, 21 April 2011

Are lower property prices really bad?

Elections are in 2 weeks. We see our local media frantically posting stories of how opposition ideas are "dangerous".
On the front page of today's main newspaper, the headline labels WP's housing policies as "dangerous".
Here are the hidden truths about rising property values in Singapore:

1) Your house is a paper asset. That means rising property values will not translate to cold hard cash if you don't sell the house.
2) Let's say that like most Singaporeans, you have one roof over your head. Selling your existing house at a prevailing rates would also mean that you need to buy another at prevailing rates. Zero net gain.
3) Yes you could choose to downgrade and make a sum from the sale but isn't that running contrary to the government's perennial promise of first world Swiss standard of living? Upgrade or downgrade?
4) The people who win are the rich. They probably have more than one house so they can cash in on high prices. Another reason why our Gini coefficient, which measures income gap, is one of the highest in Asia.
5) Property prices are high because of the reactive policies of HDB. The immigration floodgates opened soon after the 2006 elections which led to a startling increase in population. As statistics will attest, the number of flats built lagged way behind the jump in resident numbers.
Where do you expect a million foreigners to stay?

So the Minister's reasoning that lower property values are bad for Singaporeans is highly mootable.
In fact, the main worry for most Singaporeans is the affordability of buying their very first home. And they worry for their childern too.

And please Mr. Minister, affordability is subjective. The longer the loan tenure, the lower the monthly repayments, hence affordable? NO.
Longer loans just means you end up paying alot alot more in interest!

So taking everything in consideration, pegging public housing prices at cost may be a good thing for the majority of citizens afterall.

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