Thursday, 29 December 2011

Uniquely Singapore- Photo of the day

Singapore is just a very unique place to live in. We pay $70,000 for a chance to own a car for 10 years. We give away fully-paid scholarships to foreigners and deny local citizens that opportunity. And although 40% of citizens voted against the PAP, they still have a 81 to 87 majority in Parliament.

So I'm starting a segment to feature things that make our nation Uniquely Singapore.

Starting with this: A shuttered police post.
Who would have thought crimes won't be committed in the mornings.


Saturday, 24 December 2011

SMRT see-Sawing

I must apologise for not updating the blog for several weeks. But I'm back now.
Kicking off with the most talked about story on PerezHilton.com, the Mass Rapid Transit.

After the 2010 World Cup, Brazilian coach Dunga offered to step down after the country's failure to get past Netherlands in the quarter finals. Reaching the last 4 of arguably the world's most prestigious and competitive tournament is no easy feat.
But in a nation which is football crazy and that once was the global leader in the sport, this is failure.
In any case, Dunga was promptly fired by the CBF.

The UK faced one of its worst winters in recent times last Christmas, leading to the resignation of Scottish Transport Minister Stewart Stevenson for failure to tackle the travel chaos.
In the words of Scottish Labour leader, "Scotland had lost confidence in the transport minister and it was only right that he should resign..."

If you recall, state-owned monopoly SMRT picked up the "Best Passenger Experience" award in an annual conference in 2008. The win was debatable even then, more so if you've ever taken the trains in Seoul, Taipei or Hong Kong.
Since then, SMRT has come a very long way. A long way down.
I documented in September about the less than stellar track record of the rail operator.
Two months later, SMRT's CEO Ms. Saw Phaik Hwa was given an extra 176, 600 shares as a reward for "performance". This is equivalent to S$332,008 at Nov 11 closing price of the stock.

Much has been said on and offline about the recent spate of SMRT malfunctions. I will not list the details since the Singapore Democrats have already done so here.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating that a leader should always step down when things go wrong. Everyone should be given a second chance to redeem themselves.
What is clear here is that Ms. Saw oversaw, no pun intended, and presided over a spate of breakdowns over the last two years, in addition to two hugely embarrassing graffiti incidents.
As CEO, she obviously had ample opportunities to put things right but no.

As of today, SMRT trains are running at increased intervals. Waiting times have shot up and queues have gotten longer. And they are going just about as fast as Cinderella's pumpkin carriage.
Retailers are reportedly hit, people are late for work and some couples even cancel their dates. In short, SMRT has adversely affected the lives of many Singaporeans.

But our transportation woes lies deep within the system...the same regime that took quite a few brazen gambles over the last decade. Not just the casinos but the irresponsible immigration policy to prop up its "GDP growth at all costs" model.

You see, when the first SMRT trains started running in 1987, I don't think the urban planners then  envisioned over 5 million people squeezing into this island in such a short period of time. Singapore's resident population then was just 2.7 million.
To make matters worse, our current generation of Ministers keep getting caught off guard, using stop gap measure like ERP, COE etc to "regulate" the system.
Minister for Transport Lui Tuck Yew's comments summed his party's inaptitude perfectly:

 "There have been a number of train disruptions in recent days. I do not know if these are isolated incidents or whether there are systemic and more serious underlying issues causing these breakdowns."

Ms. Saw's position is totally safe for now. This is because Ong Ye Kung, who also happens to be a PAP MP, is on the Board of SMRT. And out of sheer coincidence, he's also tasked to carry out this on-going independent investigation into the breakdowns.
So with salary that is higher than any former SMRT CEO and a position with zero accountability, this lady is here to stay.


Tuesday, 11 October 2011

Spend more on defence, spend less on healthcare

Since taking over from Mr. "$8 bypass" Khaw, Health Minister Gan Kim Yong has been buy introducing a few cosmetic changes to our healthcare system:
  • Under the Primary Care Partnership Scheme (PCPS), the qualifying age has been lowered from 65 to 40 to help citizens manage their chronic diseases earlier. The income criteria has been raised from SGD800 (US$616) a month to SGD1,500 (US$1,156) a month
  • Subsidies for some higher-cost standard drugs will increase from 50% to 75% for eligible patients with healthcare benefits card
  • Increase in Medication Assistance Fund (MAF) for selected drugs, up to subsidies of 75%
  • Medifund to be extended to community- and home-based intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services
  • Medisave withdrawal limit for Chronic Disease Management Programme (CDMP) to be increased from SGD300 (US$231) (Medisave300) to SGD400 (US$308) (Medisave400)
Still, the changes will have minimal impact on affordability of healthcare due to a minor problem: The continued lack of facilities and beds.
According to a Straits Times report, despite the long overdue arrival of Khoo Teck Puat hospital, the new kid on the block had to divert patients elsewhere due to chronic bed shortage.

The problem actually lies deep within the PAP hierarchy.
The World Health Organisation puts Singapore's government healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP is a meagre 3.9%, way behind the region's average of 5.4%. Private healthcare expenditure, where patients bear the cost of healthcare, as a proportion of total healthcare expenditure is at 63%, a figure more commonly associated with developing nations. Indeed, this puts us in the league of Vietnam, Philippines and India.

International research firm Business Monitor documents that the government has drastically reduced its burden from 45% in the year 2000 to an all-time low of 32% in 2007.
In other words, as the colloquial saying goes "you die your business", the PAP has cunningly shifted the rising cost of healthcare to Singaporeans.
The situation is even more mind-boggling when you consider that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong opened the floodgates to foreigners as soon as he took office in 2004. Shouldn't increased population growth = higher government healthcare spending?




Singstat recently revealed that there are 1.9 million foreigners living in this red dot. More than one in three people you meet in the street has not taken part in our nation building nor contributed to national service but are enjoying the fruits of Singaporeans' labour, including our over-stretched and under-funded healthcare.

Yet the PAP continues with the archaic behaviour of spending huge amounts of our budget on Defence.
Indeed, we rank 13th out of over 200 countries in terms of the magnitude of our military spending, as a % of GDP. Looking at the table below, most of the high spenders are from the Middle East, a region notorious for religious unrest even till today. What's even more puzzling is that our % spend is so close to the proverbial global superpower and policeman, the United States of America.
While the US Congress is stabilising (and trying to reduce) military spending, still hovering at 4.8% in 2010, our Singapore leaders opted to increase the share to 5.4% in this year's budget.
So we officially spend more as a % of GDP on defence than the USA!!

In dollar terms, that's S$ 3,350,000,000 more than what we spend on healthcare!

I'm not downplaying the signficance of self defence. But in an age where nations are more worried about mortgages and defaults, and where cross border trade is the order of globalisation, how real is the external military threat?
Terrorism is here to stay but wouldn't a self sufficient, small but highly trained regular army do the job?
Not even the battalions of National Servicemen dispatched could find the limping Mas Selamat when he escaped.

And just imagine the Singaporean lives that could be bettered or saved with that extra 3 billion dollars every year?



Parliament finally convened, 5 long months after the General Elections. As usual, like a well-choreographed dance routine, PAP MPs pop up in numbers to endorse the President's opening address.
Dr Tony Tan used the usual catchphrases like "better life for all", "all inclusive society" etc etc.

What I would like to see is Parliament debating on whether it's necessary to spend such exorbitant sums on defence. If reducing the 10 year reservist cycle or duration of each in camp means billions of dollars channeled into healthcare and education, we should do it.

At least this is more productive then spending precious sittings bashing Singaporeans.


Monday, 26 September 2011

Million dollar homes- who's buying?

According to a Straits Times report, average sales value of both resale and new condos crossed the S$1 million mark in Q2 this year.
You wonder who's snapping up these homes when the government reported that median household income in 2010 was just S$5,000. This figure is also likely to be skewed as Permanent Residents are kneaded into the calculation. So the actual income is in all likelihood, lower than the figure published.
Without a strong and independent Press, our politicians will continue to use statistics as a smokescreen.
Indeed, a publication by the World Bank describes how a free press is no longer a luxury but essential to equitable economic development.

In an effort to revitalise the nation (and win votes), Malaysian PM Najib promised to review press controls and media censorship. Following his speech, there are even calls to totally abolish such stifling laws.
Will PM Lee ever do the same?
Will we ever find out the actual standard of life of Singaporeans and Singaporeans alone?

The PAP has always played the "housing value" card whether at elections or a Sunday luncheon.
MM Lee continues to forewarn that without the PAP, our housing value will fall. The former Minister Mentor even went so far as to challenge Aljunied GRC voters to compare the GRC's housing values with Opposition run Hougang estates.
Unfortunately for him, they didn't listen.

In 2002, there was a study by IMF covering 16 OECD nations that claimed that rising housing prices have positive effect on consumption. This would be music to our ministers' ears.
Bearing in mind that the sample size consisted mainly of developed states in Europe and North America, does the study apply to Singapore?
A Singapore Management University faculty member, backed by the Wharton-Singapore Management University Research Centre did her own study using Ministry data and rejected the findings.
This paper claimed that rising housing prices did not create wealth effect. Rather, there was some evidence to say that "house price increase appear to have a dampening effect on aggregate consumption".
One implication of this is that "policy makers should treat housing wealth as distinct from other assets when considering the impact of wealth on consumption".

Put simply, rising housing value does not necessarily mean that standard of living is improving or that Singaporeans spend more.

One key reason could be that unlike the OECD countries studied, many Singaporeans have their retirement savings wiped out by housing loans.
Another possible reason is the relative low purchasing power of Singaporeans caused by stagnant wages and a general lack of subsidies on anything from petrol to healthcare. This is confirmed by the widely circulated UBS Prices & Earnings Study.

Thus, it will be interesting to know who are the ones buying those million dollar properties.
What's pretty clear, not all are Singaporeans.




Friday, 23 September 2011

Wheels stop spinning on Circle Line

Back in June, I wrote about the unacceptable performance of SMRT. The company 54.3% owned by Temasek Holdings and a listed entity at the same time, is putting shareholders' interest above passenger welfare. Thousands of commuters have endured breakdown after breakdown while the company's executives continue to seek fare increments year after year.
Earlier this week, they went one better when the entire Circle Line, that's 16 stations in all, stopped functioning for hours leaving an estimated 20,000 commuters stranded.

In the Philippines, the Aquino government raised fares on certain lines after a year of deliberation. The reason for the fare increase is justifiable due to a decade of heavy subsidies and loss making. SMRT is an extremely profitable venture. In fact, it returned record dividends to shareholders in 2010.
Don't get me wrong. Many transport operators around the world are listed too. The difference is that there is zero competition for SMRT in Singapore.
The company will continue to suck more from commuters and pay fat cheques to their executives and shareholders.

It was reported this morning that Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew has asked for a probe into this mess. If it ends up in the customary fine, which some claim is akin to passing money to the Land Transport Authority and back to government coffers, nothing will change, as history will tell us.
It's not enough to probe at the gums...the decaying tooth must be extracted.
Especially when the incident comes hot on the heels of a second graffiti faux pas just last month.
Heads must roll, leaders made accountable.
Last December, Northern UK experienced one of the worst winters ever, causing travel chaos in Scotland forcing its transport minister to resign.
Resignation is not a sign of shirking responsibility. It's a gesture that acknowledges accountability and accepts that someone else could do the job better.

Minister Lui was spotted "going undercover" taking the MRT during peak hours. I wonder what his response would be if he was personally stuck in the Circle Line.


Thursday, 15 September 2011

MP sitting on the floor

Many PAP Ministers like to sit.
None more so than Ang Mo Kio GRC's Yeo Guat Kwang, who in addition to his cushy MP seat, sits on the board, panel, council of 64 other organisations!
Even Superman can't be in 65 places at the same time! So he's either short-changing these 64 organisations or the Singaporeans that elected him into Parliament. Go figure.

Some others like to sit on piles of cash. Despite his hearty monthly MP allowance and fat pay cheque from NOL, Pioneer SMC's Cedric Foo gives out $4 ang paos!
Nothing wrong with that except that the dude's filthy rich. 

Then there are those that like to sit on pressing issues. Health Minister Gan Kim Yong is apparently dragging his feet to reform nursing homes after the well publicised shocking abuse of an elderly patient by foreign nurses at a home, claiming that "these are long-term issues that will require very careful analysis and understanding of the impact".
Careful analysis? Some poor old woman got abused... I don't know how much more straightforward it gets.

In contrast, a certain other nobody, well actually a member of the Worker's Party's Aljunied GRC team, sits unassumingly on the floor in effort to mingle with residents. So much so that the politicised People's Association decided it was better to kick this MP and his fellow colleagues out of most public spaces so they have nowhere to sit.

Now with one of their own sitting on the President's throne, it remains to be seen if the 81 PAP MPs can descend their ivory towers and sit among ordinary Singaporeans.

Oh by the way, the nobody MP is a chap called Chen Show Mao.


Monday, 12 September 2011

Reinvention

As the PAP's soul searching continues 4 months after the party's most disastrous poll performance, PM Lee Hsien Loong is urging his careers first, country second, politicians to "reinvent" themselves.

The word "reinvention" normally has a positive spin to it. The Internet reinvented the way people connected and. Apple reinvented the cell-phone into a lifestyle accessory. Lady Gaga reinvented fashion...just kidding.

Then he continues "to anticipate and counter attempts to score political points by those who do not want us to succeed; and to gain recognition for the good work of the Government."
Two things can be inferred here
1) That people voted opposition because they don't want PAP to succeed
2) PM Lee still feels this current government has done good work

Firstly, people voted opposition because they want Singapore to succeed. This is another example of how PAP politics puts party above country. Remember numerous party members chanting "Majullah PAP" during elections?


Secondly, as long as the current generation of leaders continue to live in fantasy world and believe they have been performing well, there will be no reinvention.
There will only be repetition. Repetition of the same old party serving policies.

Case in point, the PAP is now using research carried out by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) to justify the need for this relentless influx of foreigners. The paper made Nobel prize-worthy discovery that our population will decline without migration. It somehow also generated a mind-boggling 48 different population scenarios, far more elaborate than Paris Hilton's social life.
Oh by the way, the IPS is chaired by the venerable Lee Kuan Yew himself.

Falling birth rates is common in many developed nations. Western European countries are no different.
Nordic countries like Sweden and Norway have managed to raise their birth rates close to 2. (2.1 is the universally accepted rate for a population to replace itself). Some of the common features of their success include:
  • About 12 months of paid leave for working mothers
  • Weeks or months of paternity leave, in some cases mandatory
  • Generous if not full subsidies for state run child care
  • Flexible work schedules
In a nutshell, these countries have implemented schemes to take the financial burden off early parenthood.
Contrast with PAP run Singapore:

  • Mothers get max 4 months paid leave
  • Fathers get a total of 6 days childcare leave, subject to time spent at current employment
  • Average subsidies in place but mothers must work for at least 56 hours per month. Close to none for non-working mothers
  • Flexi hours exist in Singapore???
So instead of focusing on long term solutions, PAP simply disburses one time monetary amounts through the Baby Bonus scheme and then wonder why fertility rates continue to decline.

Like a gambler going for broke, the government then imports inordinate amounts of foreigners to boost population growth. This turns the rat race into a sprint so most Singaporean couples just don't want the burden of raising kids.

Further, who does rising population growth really benefit?
Singaporeans?
Unless you call these benefits:
1) Stagnant wages
2) No job security
3) Rip off housing prices
4) Expensive healthcare
5) Elusive CPF savings
6) Overcrowded public transport and spaces
7) etc

Population growth benefits the PAP.
Let's take a look at the commonly used equation for GDP.
GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports)

GDP is the holy grail for our ministers. It not only determines their bonuses, it also masks the real story behind the country's standard of living so long as GDP keeps growing.

As you can see, the more people there are on this island, the more private consumption increases.
When the Indian national eats at a food court, that contributes to private consumption.
When the PRC masseuse buys a bar of soap, that contributes to private consumption.

So you can see why the government will never accept falling demographics.

Still, there is one reinvention that is more powerful than the rest.
The reinvention of our political landscape is the key to how Singapore survives the next 50 years.
40% of the populace have reinvented themselves and given us these.

Reinvention is cool.