General Elections 2016- battle plan?

I was just studying the 2011 electoral boundaries.
While we know that boundaries are redrawn every election, one thing I could conclude is that the PAP has everything to worry about.
Also, if the Opposition can fully get their act together, work the ground alot harder, better strategise where to send their teams etc, the gains could be significant.

If you look at the map below, the red areas are Aljunied GRC and Hougang SMC.
I've pinked out those constituencies where the Opposition came close to winning.

My advice to the Opposition is band together and form a bastion in the East. Send your A teams to take down these wards and we could have a solid Opposition base in eastern Singapore.
It's often cited that the Opposition lacks the funds and economies of scale to wage a successful fight. With this scenario, they can consolidate resources by banding these constituencies, which are all adjacent to each other, together.

Now we all know how staunchly PAP is in the West- Jurong, Choa Chu Kang, West Coast (biggest GRC by land area) and to some extent Holland-Bukit Timah.
So if the Opposition can consolidate power in the East, they can use that as a springboard to tackle these more stubborn areas.

For the PAP, they have to seriously consider:

• Who will repalce SM Goh in Marine Parade
• If Lim Swee Say can improve the performance in East Coast,  considering that he faced off with what was essentially, no disrespect, WP's 'B' team
• If they can they stretch Pasir-Ris Punggol boundaries even more to take advantage of Teo Chee Hean's safe status
• If MBT should continue in Tampines

We have a battle on our hands. Looking forward to GE 2016.

PS: Notice how tiny Tampines GRC is. Looks like the PAP had little faith in MBT.

Another foreigner with a big mouth

Nothing irks me more than when some foreigner runs his mouth off about how lucky Singaporeans are yada yada yada without knowing our history.
Nothing irks me even more when our local media publish every pro-PAP comment no matter how ridiculous they are.
How about more coverage on Aljunied GRC's transition? That's national news worthy of precious ink.

A dude from somewhere nearby, obviously across the Causeway, sees fit to give us a lecture on "gratitude".

Newsflash! Efficiency does not always equate to happiness.
Cuba and N.Korea are pretty efficient regimes, at least to their supporters but that doesn't mean that ordinary citizens wouldn't jump at the chance to migrate to US or S.Korea?

Sure Malaysia isn't as efficient and safe as Singapore but alot of middle class Malaysians seem a whole lot happier, can afford a proper house and a car with average salaries.
Indeed, a survey by Gallup World Poll on happiest countries in the world places Singapore in an unflattering 81st position. Even inefficient Pakistan and Botswana are ranked above us.

Mr. Yeo, be thankful you are in the enviable position of having choices. You always have Malaysia to fall back on while Singaporeans don't. You earn in S$ and spend in Ringgit when you decide to go home.

We know that Chinese Malaysians may suffer some form of discrimination but Singaporeans are increasingly being treated like second class citizens too---only difference is it's happening in our own backyard!

Having choices is a liberating and assuring feeling.

So to answer your little teaser, yes I would like to exchange places with you.

And make no mistake there is absolutely zero tolerance when government policies contribute to the marginalisation of our poor and less fortunate in society and the relentless squeezing of the middle class. By the way, it's not karma that got them there.

Therefore, please continue to refrain from making any comments to Singaporeans even after the elections.

Unhappy? Swap places with me

Letter from Matthew Yeo

Updated 11:36 AM May 12, 2011

I refer to the statement made by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew in your report on May 9. I am a professional working in Singapore on an Employment Pass and I come from a nearby country. I have refrained from making any comments to my Singaporean friends in the run-up to the General Election because being a non-voter, I believe I should be neutral. But I am aware of all the issues being thrown about: High cost of living, overcrowding, entry of many foreigners, the hot property market, etc.

My personal view is that the present government, although not perfect, has done very well in comparison to other neighbouring countries, and indeed globally. We see a society here that is relatively safe, stable, has a good standard of living, that prepares its younger generation for the future by having a world-class education system and a thriving economy.

Singaporeans must come out of this complaining, molly-coddled mindset, and I think part of this syndrome is because the efficiency of this society has spoiled them so that they are less tolerant. Please compare this country to where I come from: There is rampant corruption, social injustice, religious and racial bigotry, indecisiveness and opaque governance, to name a few things. The list goes on.

To the unhappy and discontented Singaporeans, exchange places with me. I would only be too happy to make this my permanent home.

An attempt to figure out the PAP voter base

I struck up a conversation with a taxi uncle today. No prizes for guessing that we spoke about the elections. He told me that he has three children, one of which is a Major in the SAF and the other an executive with DSTA. According to him, all of them, including the two public servants, voted for the opposition. He too voted against the PAP because he felt the overall standard of living was decreasing.

It's not surprising to see more public servants voting against the regime. Then how is it that the PAP still managed to cling onto 60% of the electorate? Where are the votes coming from?

Let me attempt to break it down. Please note that these are pure estimates. I apologise in advance if there are any gross inaccuracies. So here goes.

Public Service
This government website says there are about 124,000 officers working around various ministries. While it isn't clear, let's assume they are 2009 or 2010 figures.

Grassroots
According to TODAY, there are about 30,000 grassroots leaders Using the average household size of 3, there would roughly be 100,000 or so grassroots leaders and their families voting for PAP.

New Citizens
The PAP claims to need 20,000 new citizens each year. So you can deduce there would be about 100,000 new citizens from 2006-2010.

Older Voters
Referencing official stats, there are about 1.6 million citizens above 50 years. MM Lee claims that those 50 and above will remember the PAP contributions so I thought this would be a good gauge of PAP's staunchest demographic.

So the math is:

Type:	Votes:
Public Service	124,000
Grassroots	100,000
New Citizens	100,000
Older Voters	1,600,000
Total	1,924,000

Further assuming that all New Citizens will vote PAP and applying 60% to the rest (based on popular voting results), the number would be 1,194,400.
And after taking into account overlap in the categories by applying 70% factor, the estimated number of assured PAP votes is 836,080.

Again, this is only an estimate at best but that's 40% of the 2.2 million voters in the PAP's corner even before a minute of campaigning.
Throw in Grow & Share monies, a rare apology by PM Lee and some apparent underhand tactics, it's not hard to see how they can easily swing another 10-20% of the voters to win a mandate.

Same old PAP?

Barely a few days into the new government term, reports have surfaced online regarding typical PAP behaviour towards the opposition and their supporters.

The 60% daft Singaporeans thought a hasty apology from PM Lee signalled a change in the PAP mindset.
While it may a little too early to judge, the signs aren't too good.

Aljunied residents have complained about a spate of apparent sabotage after PAP got voted out.
Town Council services stopped, employees sacked, garbage not cleared etc etc.
The TCs and RCs are doing Singaporeans a big disservice if they halt essential functions. You are NOT part of the PAP even though MM Lee would like you to think so.
You have a duty to all Singaporeans, regardless of language, religion or political association.
If the allegations are true, they are classic PAP tactics to instill fear into opposition voters.

In fact, the ominous signs were there seconds after the results were announced. Dr. Vivian B, in his thank you speech said "many PAP policies are right but their implementation and communication can be improved".
Looks like we might get the same old shit policies shoved down our throats, in improved ways, thanks to silly Singaporeans who failed their duty to do their bid in toppling a few more GRCs.

MM Lee too couldn't resist another pot shot:
“2011 has seen a generation that does not remember from whence we came, but that is to be expected. But I do, and those amongst you who are over 50 will remember”

As I'm writing this, the Police are apparently dispersing the peaceful crowd gathered at Blk 108 Potong Pasir to sign a petition for by-election.

To the 60% of Singaporeans, you were given a very important vote and wasted your cross on the wrong box for the umpteenth time. This Aljunied resident summed it up best.

Repent?

Why is the PAP worried?

If the elections were contested online, the opposition would have trashed PAP on every count. Nearly all the online polls conducted were overwhelmingly in favour of the opposition.
Despite the numerous attempts to woo young voters, including attempts at hip-hop, they seem to have difficulties connecting with the younger generation.

However, it was a triumph in the end for MM Lee, err PM Lee and his 81 MPs.
Why then is the PAP so concerned about the results?

• 40% or 880,000 Singaporeans voted against them. If we exclude the estimated 100,000 new citizens whom we can safely assume , voted PAP, the figure is 43%.
• The PAP share of popular votes has plunged from 75% in 2001 to 60% in 2011. If the trend continues, they could see their share hit the crucial 50% mark in 2016.
• They have given literally everything in this fight: Grow & Share package, PM Lee's apology, smear tactics, MM Lee's threats, redrawing of GRC boundaries etc.
• They put their best minister in charge of Aljunied GRC and yet he lost to a coherent and formidable Workers' Party team. If George Yeo can lose a GRC, any other lesser minister can be vulnerable in 2016
• They are getting a real bitter taste of their own medicine. What is it like to lose three ministers and one future speaker of Parliment in one fell swoop?
• One of their strongest GRC anchors, former Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, came within a whisker of a shambolic embarrassment. And their opponents? A bunch of unknowns including a raw 24 year old candidate. SM Goh has said this would be his last elections. Who then is going to helm Marine Parade in the next GE?
• How did they let TPL into their political ranks? Steve Tan? What happened to the screening process?
• How much more can they rely on MBT and WKS? If they had come up against opposition of the calibre of Low's team, these deeply unpopular Ministers would probably have lost. WKS, the veteran Minister, has mind-blowing number of "Likes" on Facebook-847 to be exact.

More thoughts on GE 2011

A full day has passed since the GE and the reality of what transpired is totally sinking in.
Somehow, the well-oiled PAP machinery has steamrolled all but 2 constituencies.

It appears that whilst momentous in the making,  the Workers' Party's superb victory in Aljunied GRC was a pyrrhic one. Although some opposition supporters may not admit it, it feels like we've taken one step forward and about two steps back.

Firstly, it is a mystery of unimaginable proportions how Tin Pei Ling is officially an MP and will actually be debating on serious country issues in Parliment. It is just as well the Singapore Parliment is not used to debates but serves as a legal ground for other pressing issues like the creation of a food museum.
Such is the undeniable consequence of the GRC system, a system supposedly designed to ensure minority representation in government.
Well the GRC certainly did just that by voting in a minority indeed. How often do you see someone of TPL's ability or lack of contesting in a General Election?

Secondly, how did candidates of real calibre like Dr. Vincent Wijeysingha, Tan Jee Say, Tony Tan and others not be serving in our country's highest office? Are Singaporeans going to continue to show blind faith in untalented and undeserving ministers? Is there something really wrong with the opposition's strategy? I will deal with this in future articles.

Thirdly, by giving a 81-6 mandate to PAP, are Singaporeans actually saying it's OK to have:
1) Public housing that is increasingly unaffordable to the masses
2) Rising healthcare costs with the PAP continually chopping its share of the burden
3) Unchecked immigration that have made our daily toil ever more suffocating and unbearable
4) Foreigners taking away jobs that Singaporeans want and can do
5) Ministers paying themselves millions of dollars while 30% of our population continue to earn about $1500 a month
6) Ministers talking down to us, calling us names and suggesting we ship our elderly to JB for cheaper nursing homes
7) Our CPF retirement age and minimum sums raised time after time while thousands are in dire need of their hard-earned monies
The bewildering actions of 60% of our electorate may have prolonged the hardships of the 40% by another 5 years.

Fourthly, how much of a role did our state-controlled media play in this elections? We all know that our media is ranked a shocking 141st in the Worldwide Press Freedom Index so biased coverage is but expected.
While this elections may be known as the social media election, I'm afraid that state media came up triumphant in the end, much to the PAP's delight.
My belief is that alot of the good messages from the opposition didn't reach the masses. It appears there are thousands of people, probably in the late 40s and up that don't access Facebook, Youtube or Temasek Review. Singapore may not be as highly wired as we think.
So long as state media is under total PAP control, the task of unseating them is always daunting.

Fifth, 40% of Singaporeans voted for the opposition but that yielded less than 10% of the Parlimentary seats. That is both an aberration and anomaly and there is little doubt that the GRC system is the chief cultprit. While my prayers are on the 6 brave souls that are going to be the voice of a million Singaporeans, we know that they would be powerless to stop the PAP should they still decide to pass laws on their whim.
I'm hoping or dreaming of a legislation that will ban electoral boundary changes for 3 or 4 elections.

Finally, how astute was the timing of PM Lee's "apology" on the penultimate day of campaigning? I actually think this was one of the turning points in this GE. Thousands of undecided voters would have felt the nostalgic tug on the heartstrings and failed to realise that they could be royally screwed for another 60 months. Further, we have already seen how monetary "gifts" during election time can seal lots of votes for the PAP. I think the "Grow and Share" package entrenched many Singaporeans grateful for the extra $800 to defray mounting expenses onto the side of the men in white.
Pity they didn't know the handouts are from the GST they paid or that the ministers would have received $1,000,000 each for their part of the package.

So what happened?

I'm confident that young voters (21-35) did our part. Unfortunately, we are only 1/4 of the electorate.

I suspect the majority of our grandparents voted PAP. New citizens nearly all voted PAP.
Then there is the big civil service where many people are still scared of voting opposition even though they really want to.
And remember that PAP has built up formidable numbers in grassroots.
Also, 400,000 Singaporeans did not vote. Many of these are probably working or living overseas. They could have made a difference.

The only way the opposition can take power is if all parties united into one to contest PAP.

However, the PAP has never been pushed so hard before.
Let's hope that PM Lee's apology was sincere and that Singaporeans' lives will improve.
But somehow I'm not so sure...

PS: Well done Aljunied GRC! Fingers crossed for Tampines, Marine Parade and Holland Bukit Timah

Clean sweep?

Not looking good.

Seems like only Aljunied GRC to opposition.
Apparently Marine Parade and Tampines are the only "close' calls.

Looking at things half full, we could have finally brought down their invincible GRC system.

What is the future of Singaporeans?

I haven't posted anything since 12am May 6 in observance of "cooling off day".
If only Ting Pei Ling can observe a simply ruling like this.

Let's see if the opposition can make signficant gains despite having all the odds stacked against them.
May the good Lord bless our nation and votes.

Here we go...